Several weeks ago, the financial pundits were telling us how successful sales were over Black Friday. They beat the drum that "all is fine" in the economy as consumers spent record amounts this holiday season. But, a recent column in the Washington Post shed light on this issue: (View article)
The reports released with Black Friday and the holiday weekend are from trade groups representing retailers. (They do not hide this.) Each year, they make wildly optimistic projections, which are repeated in the media like clockwork. By the time the actual data come in, the projections have been forgotten. By then, we learn that early reports were pure hokum, put out by trade groups to create a “positive shopping environment.”
So far this year, the NRF is running true to form. According to actual spending data from MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, retail sales for the four-day Thanksgiving holiday weekend rose 8.7 percent — about half of the NRF’s estimate. SpendingPulse tracks actual purchases made with cash, checks, credit cards and debit cards as the basis of their analysis.
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Year
|
NRF Survey Forecast
|
Actual Holiday Sales
|
2005
|
22%
|
1%
|
2006
|
18.9%
|
5%
|
2007
|
4%
|
-0.4%
|
2008
|
2.2%
|
-6.0%
|
2009
|
-43%
|
3%
|
2010
|
9.2%
|
5.5%
|
2011
|
16.6%
|
??
|
